Donald Trump is a fascination. He lies without blushing. He’s cracking sexist and racist slogans and nothing is bringing him down – no scandal, no disclosure book, no impeachment proceedings, no uprising within his own party. Four years ago, he won the election against the all-time favorite Hillary Clinton. Since then, his fans have remained loyal to him. Someone like him is evidently capable of transcending political reason.
This description of Trump already contains the dilemma into which he plunges his critics. His highly polarizing rhetoric cannot be ignored. It promises public attention and the media good ratings. The reports of him in the 2015/2016 presidential campaign would have been worth more than two billion dollars in advertising. Trump got them for free. Cheek wins.
The American Democrats and most of the rest of the world have been in a state of paralysis since Trump’s election victory. It had happened that no one had expected and should never have. The impossible had become reality. Horror and panic alternate. Once it happens, it can happen again. Hardly anyone dares to look at the facts without prejudice.
It is precisely the mix of fascination, panic and demonization that makes Trump strong. While his opponents despair him, his power grows over them. He eventually leaves her desperate. He lets her pass out, clenching her fists in her pocket, without consequences. What a devil! His followers think with admiration. Couldn’t someone like him kick Joe Biden out too?
It’s time to stop the rabbit from staring at the snake. Trump’s mouth heroism may be the last thing he’s got. Once it was underestimated, now it is overestimated. His rebellious stance is on the wane, he has never had a majority of Americans on his side, approval ratings for his work as president have fluctuated between 41 and 43 percent and never reached more than 48 percent, his voter potential – predominantly white, married, male churchgoers – he’s exhausted.
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In the congressional elections two years ago, the economy was booming, unemployment was low, two conservative constitutional judges had been appointed and no one spoke about Corona. Yet the Democrats were victorious. They won a majority in the House, even in the Senate, where the Republicans won a few seats, the opposition had a lead of more than 12 million votes. Women, new voters and minorities in particular could be mobilized.
Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton. Unlike her – and Trump – the current Democratic candidate is largely getting good personal grades. He is trusted to unite the nation. Attacks on Biden’s age and health – Trump calls him “Sleepy Joe” and spreads rumors of the 77-year-old’s mental weakness – are perceived as discriminatory by older voters.
Just as Trump has slandered Joe Biden, he mourns older voters
Seniors 65 and older have voted for a Republican majority since 2004. Trump was eight percentage points ahead of Clinton for them. Now they are turning away from the incumbent. Trump’s attacks on state health insurance, the postal voting system and his downplaying of the corona crisis are irritating many older voters. The defectors are referred to as “seniors passing over”. Retirement and nursing homes in the US recorded the highest number of Covid-19 deaths.
In a direct comparison, Biden leads Trump by about six percentage points. He also has a comfortable edge in most “battlefield states,” the states that often pass elections. This is six percentage points in Wisconsin, five in Michigan and Arizona and four percentage points in Pennsylvania. If a vote were taken tomorrow, the “blue wave” (blue is the color of the Democrats) would bring him a brilliant victory.
Joe Biden’s lead is greater than Hillary Clinton’s 2016 lead
According to the “Economist”, the chance that Biden will win the majority in the “electoral college”, the electoral body, is 85 percent. Since postal voting is already in use in many countries, the current political vote is likely to translate into gains for the Democrats. It’s true, Hillary Clinton also came out on top in the 2016 polls. But their lead was mainly in the margin of error.
Most Americans have passed judgment and the number of undecided is small. Current events such as the corona crisis, economic development or the dispute over the filling of the position at the Supreme Court have only a marginal effect on political preferences.
Of course, a miracle can happen and Trump remains president. But it must be quite a miracle. Despondency and even fear of it do not help. A relaxed self-confidence must take its place. This is the only way blenders can be disappointed.