With 38 days left for the presidential election, Democratic candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden continues to emerge ahead of President Donald Trump in the polls, including in crucial states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. However, this trip is now shorter and other swing states anticipate a close race.
This Sunday, according to FiveThirtyEight, a site specializing in poll analysis, Joe Biden has a 77% chance of winning the election, against Donald Trump’s 23%. This is the biggest difference between the two candidates since the end of June.
However, looking in depth at the polls of some of the most decisive states, the scores seem to become less easy for Joe Biden as the election draws near – and, before that, in the early hours of Tuesday through Wednesday, the first debate opposite. face to face with Donald Trump.
This is the case of Florida, the most important of the swing-states, because it represents the most votes in the electoral college: 29. There, according to the average of RealClearPolitics, Joe Biden is 1.3 points ahead of Donald Trump – this when, towards the end of July, that gap had grown to over 8 points. FiveThirtyEight gives Joe Biden a 58% chance of beating Florida, compared to Trump’s 42%. Despite this, the most recent poll, from ABC and The Washington Post, puts the president with a 4-point advantage – which, if confirmed, would be a re-release of 2016 success in that state. One candidate and the other recently adopted this state in campaigning and it is highly likely that they will do so regularly. There, Donald Trump takes the lead in visits to Florida. The first time Joe Biden was there after being nominated was on September 15 – leading some to wonder if it was not too late.
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Then there’s Pennsylvania, where Joe Biden’s advantage comes with an edge that on RealClearPolitics’ average is 4.3% – giving him minimal comfort, but not at the level he was at. the end of July, when it arrived. to also have 8.5 percentage points more than your opponent. FiveThirtyEight gives the Democrat a 76% chance of winning and Donald Trump 24%.
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Michigan follows. There, Joe Biden had an advantage of over 8 percentage points at the start of August, but this time it was reduced to 5.2. On top of that in the latest poll, from Trafalgar Group, which is one of the few to have a sample of a thousand respondents, Donald Trump comes out first with a 1 point advantage – that is, within the margin of error. Looking at FiveThirtyEight, Joe Biden will find more reason to be optimistic about a victory in this state that Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump: he has an 85% chance of winning, against his opponent’s 15%.
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In North Carolina, which is increasingly a swing state, Joe Biden took a 4.6 point lead in early August, averaged by RealClearPolitics. However, this advantage is only 0.8%, which excludes any prediction made on the future of this typically republican state, but which in 2008 Barack Obama succeeded, exceptionally and for the first time since Jimmy Carter in 1976, to be won for the Party. Democrat. At FiveThirtyEight, there is also little certainty: 54% chance of victory for Joe Biden, 46% for Donald Trump.
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On the contrary, in Wisconsin, Joe Biden seems to have succeeded in countering the negative effect for the Democrat that some predicted following the riots in Kenosha, in that state, and for the benefit of Donald Trump. Predictions, to date, point to a victory for the Democrat: with a 6.6% advantage in the average of RealClearPolitics, whose collection only has one poll that gives the victory to Donald Trump, in August, and with only 1 point advantage. On FiveThirtyEight, Joe Biden appears with an 80% chance of winning, compared to Donald Trump’s 20%.
Why are swing states so important? Because sometimes 0.06% of the vote is enough to win