In the next ten years, more people will emigrate to Europe than in the years before the big flight in 2014/2015. However, the situation of five years ago will not repeat itself. This is predicted by a study by the UN migration agency IOM, which reviewed the full literature on the subject and had the results evaluated by 178 migration experts around the world. The study entitled “Assessing Migration Scenarios For The European Union in 2030. Relevant, Realistic and Reliable?”, Which will be presented Tuesday at the annual conference of the “European Migration Network” in Vienna and which was available in advance for the Tagesspiegel, says The time to 2030 also predicts that the number of asylum applications in the European Union is unlikely to increase or even decrease.
The world in 2030: more national egoism, the division between north and south will remain
However, she is seeing a drastic increase in the number of educated and highly educated immigrants moving to Europe. “In the most likely scenario, according to experts, the annual number of highly skilled immigrants in Europe in 2030 will be 134 percent higher than the annual average recorded for the period 2009-2018,” the text reads. The study also lists the factors that will drive this development and has long been taken into account: a growing demand for care and health services among the aging European population, a shrinking working generation due to lower birth rates, the increasing importance of climate and health Environmental protection, the stronger influence of automation and digitization in national economies and especially on the labor markets.
The study used the so-called Delphi method to evaluate predictions, which are always based on assumptions that do not necessarily materialize or change. To this end, experts with relevant and as many years of expertise as possible – here they came from research and migration practice – are asked in a multi-stage process to make their assessment of existing scenarios, usually anonymous and individual, in order to remove peer pressure and the dominance of individuals. Predictions about which there is broad consensus are thus confirmed as more likely.
In the IOM study, this consensus existed not only for the composition and magnitude of immigration, but interestingly also for the global political climate ten years from now. “In the current study,” write the IOM authors, “the experts describe it as the most unlikely scenario for the European Union in 2030 that states will solve their tasks through international and multilateral cooperation and that the regions of the world will economically In short, it is pessimistic that one expects an increase in national egoism and not that the economic north-south divide in the world will weaken significantly.
Forecasting cannot be immediately implemented in the migration policy
The IOM and the Dutch “Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute” NIDI, who collaborated for their research, consider them unique due to the large number of qualified participants – 178 researchers – but they also mention their limits, which are clear. The majority of respondents are there Agree also: “Delphi studies should be taken for what they are: a tool to collect opinions and ratings from selected people, not to get statistically representative data.” The research group is also political The migration to the north of the world has increased the need in politics for useful analysis. However, research often cannot deliver this, at least not in the short term: “The disagreement of the researchers in this Delphi study shows that there is a lack of knowledge about how fundamental engines of migration affect future migration movements might work.” uncertainties are a problem for decision-makers who demand clear messages from research to translate them into policy. Politicians urge them not to judge expert opinions and scenarios based on their immediate feasibility, “but rather based on their potential. to provide debate material for political planning ”.