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US election campaign out of Corona isolation: Trump’s Covid-19 infection causes his election odds to shrink

Just before midnight on Thursday, US time, Donald Trump’s campaign team sent a mass email to his supporters on behalf of the president, inviting them to a “very important event” in Los Angeles. “I don’t want to spend my time with the Hollywood ELITES who HATE US,” it says, “I want to spend my time with REAL patriots like you. Want to come be my VIP guest?” Below are links you can use to share to participate in the raffle for a photo session with the president or to make a donation.

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Like others, this event will have to be canceled first. On Friday he wanted to go to Florida, one of the six important swing states. This event has now also disappeared from the president’s official agenda.

Trump tested positive for the coronavirus – that hit him at a low point in the election campaign

Because a few hours after sending this email, the White House announced that Donald Trump and his wife Melania had been tested positive for the corona virus. Donald Trump was likely infected by his close adviser Hope Hicks, whose corona infection was announced on Thursday. She accompanied Trump to Cleveland this week for the first television game with Joe Biden.

Whether and to what extent Trump’s illness will affect the election campaign, perhaps even the election, depends very much on whether he develops symptoms – that doesn’t seem to have been the case on Thursday night US time. At the age of 73, Trump belongs to the risk group. What could happen if he became seriously ill and possibly had to go to hospital is still completely open. In view of November 3, entirely new constitutional questions would arise.

Joe Biden was recently able to extend his lead

However, it is already clear that the infection does not hit Trump until 32 days before the election, and thus at an extremely critical time in the election campaign – his chances of re-election chances are likely to continue to decline. Trump and his team are at a low point in the campaign: according to polls, Trump clearly lost the TV duel against his challenger Joe Biden this week. New polls from the middle of the week show that Joe Biden was able to extend his lead again to 7.2 percentage points in the national polls.

Biden’s lead is also consolidating in the important swing states. In the duel, it became clear that Trump has apparently given up hope of mobilizing changing voters and attracting conservative but moderate voter groups such as conservative suburban women or religious Hispanics to his side.

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His strategy in the duel was ‘pure Trump’ – his messages were exclusively aimed at those hardcore supporters who worship him as if they were in a cult: he refused (even if he made it right in a Fox interview) to condemn racist groups , repeated his lies about postal voting, tried to portray Biden as a puppet of the radical left and a socialist. His strategy seems to be: mobilize this group so massively that despite everything there is no overwhelming victory for the Democrats – and then fight the elections, in court – and through chaos on the streets.

Trump no longer wants to win changing voters – it’s all the worse for him not being able to serve his core voters live

As part of this strategy, personal appearances for his supporters are central. Despite massive criticism, Trump has always refused to give up live performances. He is in his element at the rallies. As a result, the corona attacks came closer and closer. Republican politician Herman Cain, who had been there, fell ill with corona after his campaign appearance in a hall in Tulsa and died. Trump continued, now largely outside.

Trump’s illness, of course, also affects his credibility. Despite everything, malice of any kind is out of the question – but the fact that, after Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the third populist head of state falls ill, will be seen as an act of satisfaction by fate – whether they say it openly or not. On the day Donald Trump’s illness became known, 202,808 people died related to Covid-19 disease, according to a census from Johns Hopkins University in the US. More than seven million have been infected.

Malice prohibits itself, even with Trump

You hardly need to remember Trump’s various derailments, his mismanagement:

In Tuesday’s television duel, he blamed his meandering stance on wearing a mask on his chief epidemiologist Anthony Fauci and insisted that he would reopen the country. Investigative reporter Bob Woodward recently announced that Trump was already dangerous at the beginning of this year. was known about the virus – but it did nothing or something wrong. He publicly considered whether injecting disinfectant could help and put pressure on Republican politicians in the states that have imposed lockdowns. He blamed China for the pandemic.

During the pandemic, all of Trump came to the fore: selfishness coupled with ineptitude and irresponsibility.

Trump is unlikely to change his stance, even with the infection

It remains to be seen whether his illness will affect his behavior and the attitudes of his major constituents. The opinions of this group are so entrenched – perhaps even Trump’s illness casts no doubt on it.

If Trump is not or only slightly ill and restart the election campaign within two weeks, there are two role models in the room. One of them is Jair Bolsonaro. After the symptoms cleared, the Brazilian president soon shook hands again, threw himself in his chest and asked, “What are you afraid of?” He continued, “I regret death. But many things die every day. That’s life.”

In contrast to Boris Johnson, who fell seriously ill at Covid and had to be treated in hospital. He seemed at least purified in the corona policy at the time, took more consistent positions and warned against too many easing measures too soon.

After all that has been observed about Trump over the past three years, it wouldn’t be surprising if he took Bolsonaro’s path. This man is incapable of insight and purification.

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