It is the great unknown with far-reaching consequences in these American elections: which party will get the majority in the Senate in the future? The Senate is key to the appointment of judges, as the battle for new Supreme Court member Amy Coney Barrett has just shown. The coercion of interaction between the president and the senate also applies to the appointment of ministers, ambassadors and heads of authorities.
Passing new laws is only possible if both houses of parliament work together: the Lower House, in which the Democrats will most likely defend their majority, and the Senate. Taxes, trade deals, migration, climate protection, infrastructure, voting rights, gun rights – any reform that a potential President Biden aspires to must be approved by both bodies of Congress.
This political division of powers means that the Senate will play a key role for the coming years. If Joe Biden moves into the White House, the Democrats can only make the promised change of direction if they also win the majority in the Senate.
Bets on the Senate are open
If Republicans retain control of the Senate, they will block reforms. And should Donald remain president and Republicans defend their majority in the Senate, the trends of the past four years will continue: the undermining of the domestic political system of rules and the multilateral order.
But unlike the White House and the House of Representatives, where the bets are pretty clear to the Democrats, the outcome of the Senate battle is considered open. Little has changed since the summer.
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority. Senators are elected for six years. However, the US holds congressional elections every two years. That’s why one third of the 100 senators are elected every two years. In 2020, two extraordinary elections will be added to the 33 regular senatorial elections due to the death of John McCain in Arizona and the resignation of Johnny Isakson in Georgia.
The Republicans have to defend more seats this time
Of the total of 35 Senate seats available for election, the Republicans must defend 23, the Democrats only half: 12. Because of this constellation, Democrats have a good chance of winning all four Senate seats and getting a majority of 51-49. Failing that, they could take the reins with a net win of three if the Biden / Harris team wins the presidential election. In the event of a 50/50 Senate stalemate, Vice President Kamala Harris’s vote as “Tiebraker” would make all the difference. .
In the forecast models, the Democrats have 45 senators and the Republicans 46 because of the seats that are ineligible in 2020 or that they will almost certainly win. Nine seats are considered highly competitive. Seven of these are Republican-owned: Arizona, Iowa, Georgia, Maine, Montana, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Two of the Democrats: Michigan and Minnesota.
The two Democrats involved, Gary Peters in Michigan and Tina Smith in Minnesota, are likely to defend their mandate for more than 80 percent. Peters is 6.6 percentage points ahead of the polls, Smith 5.8.
The Chance of the Democrats: Arizona, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina
Three Republicans in stalemated states can also expect re-election with relative certainty. South Carolina’s Lindsay Graham is sensationally behind Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison in terms of donations, but still ahead of him in the polls. In Montana, Steve Daines is equally clear to Steve Bullock. It’s a little closer for David Perdue in Georgia against Jon Ossow.
In the remaining four races, the Democrats have a chance to win seats in the Senate. In Ariziona she has Mark Kelly versus Martha McSally; ex-astronaut and husband of MP Gabby Giffords, who was injured in a murder, leads by 4.4 percentage points. In Iowa, Theresa Greenfield is ahead of Joni Ernst by only 2.2 percentage points, ie in the error range of the studies. Sara Gideon’s lead over Susanne Collins in Maine is more evident.
In North Carolina, Cal Cunnigham’s lead over Thom Tillis has narrowed to 1.6 percentage points after Cunningham’s extramarital affair was discovered. Smooth text messages between him and his married lover came out.
Some in the financial world fear the advance of the Democrats
All in all, Fivethirtyeight, the website of noted poll specialist Nate Silver, thinks it’s likely the Democrats will make it. In 74 of the 100 calculated models, they win the majority in the Senate.
The idea that the 2020 elections will end when the Democrats march through them and that by 2021 they will control all three centers of power – the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate – elicits different reactions. The Democrats rejoice: “Change” would then be possible without too much focus on the Republicans.
However, some financial advisers are concerned that such a turnaround would be bad for the economic outlook. If the Democrats take all power, they will be tempted to quickly implement election promises such as tax increases and regulations in the manufacturing and energy sectors. This has a negative effect on the economy at a stage where the US wanted to break away from the corona recession.
However, other business leaders argue that there is more predictability when Biden and the Democrats control all three centers of power. Because they can achieve at most a wafer-thin majority in the Senate, they do not dare to take radical steps, but take a moderate approach. And that’s better than the supposed blockade when Republicans defend their majority in the Senate.