Most election researchers focus on ten US states that the polls will not clearly vote for Democrats or Republicans.
Especially the states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona and Wisconsin are in the spotlight. Read here how the elections work in the Swing States.
Florida – 29 voters – votes counted
In Florida, polling stations are closed and counting is done. More than 90 percent of the votes are counted. Trump leads relatively clearly with about 300,000 votes. The New York Times hits Florida with 95 percent probability Trump. Especially with the Latinos, Trump seems to be doing unexpectedly strong.
North Carolina – 15 Electors – The votes are counted
Biden leads after about 80 percent of the vote. Actually, this state is very conservative. Trump also won it in 2016. But now it can be tight. Almost all scenarios in his campaign stipulate that he must win this state to secure his reelection. There are 15 votes to be won here. Republicans have won ten of the past twelve presidential elections. But the state is constantly changing, and similar to the neighboring state of Virginia in favor of the Democrats.
Texas – 38 Electors – The votes are counted
Texas is not a classic swing state. The last time a Democrat won here was in 1976. But in the meantime, some observers count the “Lone Star State” among the states in which Biden could have a surprise victory – with 38 voters here, after California, the most popular vote. game (55). Biden even led in the early count for a while. Two-thirds of the votes have now been counted and the candidates are in a mutual race.
Georgia – 16 Electors – The votes are counted
Counting is currently also taking place here. Trump clearly leads, but so far only a third of the votes have been counted. This conservative southern state could also become a swing state after 28 years of Republican rule. Democrats have long hoped to get the 16 votes here – the last to get it was Southerner Bill Clinton in 1996. Demographic boundaries are shifting in Georgia too. The metropolis of Atlanta in particular is growing: in the past ten years from 5.3 to six million inhabitants. More than half of the population in Atlanta is black, and that is just under a third in all of Georgia.
Ohio – 18 Electors – Votes are counted
More than half of the votes are counted. Biden was clearly in the lead, but now his lead is narrowing. Trump has fared significantly worse than four years ago. No Republican has become president without winning in Ohio. And the state is sending a signal: If Trump loses Ohio, other less conservative states in the Midwest will likely go to Biden as well. Ohio, however, could be one of the states where the results will not be announced until the next few days, as postal ballots arrive here after Nov. 3 and can be counted.
Pennsylvania – 20 Electors – The votes are counted
This industrial state, like Michigan and Wisconsin, which put Trump in power in 2016, is tending to Biden, according to surveys. His 20 votes could ultimately make all the difference when elections are tight. But they may be late because the votes by mail are counted here after all the others.
The rule of thumb is: Biden, who was born here in the working-class town of Scranton in 1942, has to win so high in the cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and their suburbs that it undermines Trump’s victory in the very conservative rural part of the state, where the craze for the established order is great. Pennsylvania is also one of the states that could not be counted in the next few days due to the postal voting system and not on election night.
Michigan – 16 Electors – The votes are counted
This state, which Trump surprisingly won in 2016, leaned towards Biden in the polls. Again, the Democratic candidate is much more popular than its predecessor. He also hopes for a lot of support from voters in the suburbs and a high turnout of blacks in Detroit. Here, however, the corona pandemic, which mainly affects African Americans, is a great unknown. 16 voters are available.
Wisconsin – 10 voters
Ten voters want to secure Biden here after Trump surprisingly won Wisconsin in 2016. The polls see the Democrat ahead, thanks in large part to his big lead in the cities of Milwaukee and Madison. Instead, the rural areas are deep red.
Iowa – 6 voters
Trump’s victory in this agricultural state in 2016 was overwhelming – with a nine percentage point lead, he got six votes. The fact that the race in this conservative state – only in the cities of Des Moines, Cedar Rapids and Davenport are the Democrats clearly ahead of the curve – is completely close – the two are almost equal, clearly shows the incumbent’s weakness.
Arizona – 11 voters
In Grand Canyon State, too, demographics are shifting in favor of the Democrats. Even in this basically conservative state, Democrats are waiting for the “blue cover” – and hope that 2020 will happen. In 2018, a Democrat, Kyrsten Sinema, won the Senate race and the party hopes former astronaut Mark Kelly will do something similar this year. In 2016, Trump got the eleven votes in Arizona.