Tax revenues from federal, state and local governments are likely to be $ 10.6 billion higher than expected in September. This is evident from the autumn forecast of the tax assessments working group, which was published by the federal Ministry of Finance on Thursday. For the years 2021 to 2023, the expected additional revenues amount to a total of 9.4 billion euros.
According to the new forecast, 3.4 billion euros of the plus for the current year will go to the federal government. The positive estimated deviation is even 3.8 billion euros, but the transfer to the EU will also increase by 0.4 billion euros. The federal states can expect 5.3 billion euros more tax revenue and the municipalities 1.4 billion euros.
The federal government can count on 1.7 billion euros extra for 2021 and 2.6 billion euros for 2022. For the federal states, the expected increase in turnover is even greater. Only a small additional income is expected for 2023, for 2024 a total of 4.2 billion euros compared to the September estimate.
This bill also includes changes to the tax code that have been enacted since September that have already been taken into account in federal financial planning. Adjusted for these effects, the positive estimated deviation for the years 2021 to 2023 amounts to a total of eleven billion euros, the minus for 2024 3.6 billion euros.
Against the background of the corona pandemic, the Ministry of Finance considered the turnover development generally stable. “The current tax forecast shows that our previous decisions have been correct and that the economy is on the rise again,” emphasizes Finance Minister Olaf Scholz (SPD). That’s good news, “our aid policy is working.”
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“We see that we can weather this crisis” and “keep the economic effects low,” said Scholz. However, the pandemic is “far from over”. In this regard there are still “prediction uncertainties”. A positive sign for the future is the growth in the third quarter of 2020 of more than eight percent. November is still cloudy, but “we are looking forward to the sun”.
“Budget situation remains tense”
The Union’s budget spokesman, Eckhardt Rehberg (CDU), spoke of a “budget under pressure”. He urged Scholz to make clear statements about new debt for 2021. Green budget experts Anja Hajduk and Sven-Christian Kindler called for a “bold and big investment program to get Germany and Europe out of the economic crisis.”
Left-wing budget politician Gesine Lötzsch said in view of Scholz: “Purposeful optimism is of little help in helping people who have lost their jobs and are no longer able to pay their rent due to anti-corona measures.” She called for more help for the poor and more burdens for the “super rich”. FDP faction deputy Christian Dürr turned against more new debts.
Extra help for the municipalities is needed
The director of the German Association of Cities, Helmut Dedy, called on the municipalities for additional help. “Even if the economy continues to recover, in 2021 and 2022 cities and towns will have to expect significantly less tax revenues than predicted for the Corona crisis,” he said. Greenpeace urged to reduce subsidies that are harmful to the environment.
The tax return working group normally estimates the expected revenues in May and November. Due to the corona pandemic, the extra estimate was made this time in September. (AFP)